Saturday, 1 June 2019

How did the Greens end up fumbling so many left and progressive votes to the Lib-Dem neoliberals?


Under the circumstances the Green Party did pretty poorly at the European elections.

Yes I know I'm going to have to explain this in light of the fact that they won their biggest share of the vote since they bagged 14.5% in 1989, and their most seats ever with 7 MEPs, and got the wonderful Magid Magid into the European Parliament to represent the Yorkshire and Humber region that was electing the BNP there just 10 years ago.

12% of the vote is an improvement on the Green performance last time around, but under the unique political circumstances it's actually a pretty poor showing.

The Greens should have done really well because they're unambiguously on the progressive side of the three most burning political issues of our time.

Their name alone is evidence enough that they're serious about combating environmental degradation, they've been campaigning against the blight of ruinous Tory austerity since well before Jeremy Corbyn took Labour back from the orthodoc neoliberals and put an end to the austerity-imitating gibberish that lost them the 2015 General Election, and they're unambiguously opposed to Brexit.

Add in the stuff like the Extinction Rebellion protests, the School Strikes for Climate Action, ever growing awareness of the mess we're making of this planet, and we've got to be left asking if 2019 wasn't the time for the Greens to break through into the political mainstream, when will it be?

There's plenty of ground for arguing that their obsession with an "another roll of the dice" referendum is a massive waste of Green political energy, but there's no doubt that if you're a social progressive who really wants to stay in the EU so much you'll gamble everything on a referendum despite the Tories still in power to rig the whole thing in their own favour, then the Greens are obviously the ones for you (unless you're from Scotland or Wales where the SNP and Plaid Cymru also have justifiable claims to represent progressive Brexit-sceptics).

But somehow the Greens got absolutely steamrollered by the pro-austerity, pro-privatisation, welfare-vandalising, wage-repressing, infrastructure-underinvesting Lib-Dem neoliberals who were the venal self-serving charlatans who wilfully helped the Tories lay the groundwork for Brexit to happen in the first place by trashing our wages, public services, social safety net, and living standards between 2010 and 2015.

Somehow, out of the minority of those who could be arsed to vote in the Euro elections (just 35.6% bothered), the majority of the anti-Brexit vote went to the disgustingly unrepentant Lib-Dems, rather than to the Green Party who had exactly the same anti-Brexit stance, but with absolutely none of the austerity blood on their hands.
 

The rise of the Greens in Germany puts the UK Greens' failure into perspective. Despite no Brexit bandwagon to leap onto the German Greens doubled their vote to 20.5% and bagged 21 MEPs, meaning they finished in second place behind Angela Merkel's centre-right CDU.

In the days after the election the German Greens have risen further with the post-Euro election bounce lifting them to the top of an opinion poll for the first time in their history on 27%.

Meanwhile in the UK it's the austerity-enforcing, wage-repressing, renewable subsidy-slashing, public service-trashing, welfare-vandalising, Royal Mail-privatising Lib-Dems who are gleefully basking in the post-Euro election bounce at the top of outlier polls.

It's difficult to get down to why the Green campaign has faltered so badly in the UK, when all the factors seemed to be pointing in their favour. But as someone who is broadly supportive of their party (especially on stuff like opposing austerity, protecting the environment, and renationalisation) I'll have a go:

Mainstream media bias: The Greens have fought tooth and nail for years to try to get fairer representation in the mainstream media, but to no avail. They're continually locked out of election debates, denied party political broadcasts, and treated as a minor party, even though they went into the 2019 Euro elections with triple the seats of the supposedly bigger Lib-Dems.

Leadership structure: The Greens have an unusual joint leadership between Siân Berry and Jonathan Bartley instead of one high profile leader. It's possible that this unusual leadership structure make them seem more like well meaning political amateurs than a serious political party. However this doesn't explain the disparity between the UK and German Greens because they too have a shared leadership structure. Perhaps the polarised hyper-partisan, and divisive nature of British politics means Brits are somewhat less open to ideas like shared leadership and compromise?

Leadership figures: One of the German Greens' co-leaders is Robert Habeck who is an almost ubiquitous figure in the German media and a former government minister in the Schleswig-Holstein region, and the other co-leader is Annalena Baerbock who is a member of the Bundestag (the main German parliament). Neither Jonathan Bartley nor 
Siân Berry have anything like as high profiles (Bartley is a local councillor in Lambeth, and Berry has a seat in the London Assembly which is an institution barely mentioned by ordinary folk in London, let alone us yokels outside of it). Unfortunately Caroline Lucas is still the only major figure in the UK Green Party ranks, but it's understandable that she wants to concentrate on her duties in parliament rather than acting as party figurehead.

Naivety: All the stuff about forming electoral pacts with the Lib-Dems and the CUK squatters before the Euro elections was extremely poor from a Green perspective. Instead of positioning themselves as making a more or less identical/interchangeable anti-Brexit offer as the two overtly neoliberal Remain parties, they should have strongly and clearly distanced themselves and made it clear that they were the only UK-wide Remain party willing to address the actual causes of Brexit in the first place (austerity, wage repression, public service cuts, welfare vandalism, infrastructure underinvestment ...). Presenting themselves as Lib-Dem allies in the fight against Brexit allowed the ever cynical Lib-Dems to use "tactical voting guides" to lure people into abandoning the Greens and voting Lib-Dem as the supposedly biggest Remain party. Failure to heed the basic  political axiom "never trust the Lib-Dems" is remarkably naive stuff.


General antipathy: One factor that it would be easy to overlook is the general UK public antipathy towards the Greens. We've all seen people dismissing them as mung bean-weaving, sandal-wearing, hippy-dippy fruitcakes over the years. Maybe the Greens seriously need to think about toughening up their image as seasoned battlers in the existential crisis that out-of-control capitalism is inflicting on our planet?

Lack of clarity: By presenting themselves as being basically inter-changeable Remain protest votes with the Lib-Dems and CUK squatters, the Greens threw away their chance to explain why they were the better alternative and handed all the political momentum to the more establishment-friendly Lib-Dems.

Poor strategy: In the final days before the EU election practically all I noticed from Green activists on Twitter were efforts to pinch left-leaning Labour voters by attacking Labour's Brexit position, rather than focusing on convincing the sizeable and defined Remain demographic to vote Green instead of the austerity-enabling Lib-Dems. Instead of appealing to a large well defined demographic as the best option with no austerity baggage, they were wasting their efforts on desperately trying to erode a final few Labour votes from a party already reduced down to its core support.
 

Ineffectiveness: Even though a lot Green effort was expended on trying to pinch Labour votes during the the final days of the Euro election campaign, the evidence suggests that far more Labour supporters deserted to the pro-austerity Lib-Dems than to the anti-austerity Greens! If the Greens failed to even convince Labour deserters to back them instead of the pro-austerity Lib-Dem Tory collaborators, they clearly failed quite spectacularly. Someone within the Green ranks would have to conduct the autopsy but letting millions of left and centre-left votes slip through their fingers to be gobbled up by the orthodox neoliberal Lib-Dems was a disaster.

Differences in the traditional left: The traditional left SPD party in Germany has completely lost its way and people are crying out for an alternative. Jeremy Corbyn has revitalised the Labour Party, binned the orthodox neoliberal tripe that was driving voters away in their millions, and returned to genuine democratic socialism. Even though the low-turnout Euro Elections were incredibly poor for Labour, they haven't been floundering as badly as the German Social Democrat Party for the past four years. Coming up against a stronger traditional left than the German Greens still doesn't explain how the UK Greens let so many votes slip through their fingers to the Lib-Dems though.

Brexit fixation: Perhaps the German Greens did so well not despite the lack of a Brexit bandwagon to jump on, but because of it? Perhaps jumping on the exact same People's Vote bandwagon as the Lib-Dems and CUK squatters ended up obscuring and diluting the core Green policies that differentiate them from the pro-austerity neoliberal parties they decided to side with? Perhaps Brexit brain worms cost the Greens their best ever chance at making the breakthrough to the political big time?


It would be a futile task to try to identify one single reason that the Greens faltered and fumbled millions of potential votes through their fingers in the UK to the benefit of a bunch of unrepentant neoliberals, while the Greens surged to position themselves as the 2nd party in German politics, but it's important for UK Greens to avoid celebrating marginal gains when they should have been making significant headway, and for them to get a feel of what went so wrong so they can learn from their mistakes.

If you've got any other ideas about why the Greens faltered so badly, feel free to share them in the comments.


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18 comments:

James Milne said...

Not sure I agree with all of that analysis.
I think the main reason the German Greens are stronger, and their leaders have a higher profile, is the federal and proportional voting systems they have, that benefit insurgent parties.
I think the main reason the Lib-Dems did better than us in the Euros is sheer weight of resource, especially boots on the ground; in places where we have a strong activist base (Brighton, Norwich, Bristol, Sheffield), we were able to communicate exactly the message you describe, and it resonated; we trounced the Lib Dems in those places. Where I live in Newcastle, I still sometimes meet people who have literally never heard of the Green Party, much less know our position on Brexit or anything else. That is changing fast; we are rapidly building effective teams across the country, and where we've done that, we're getting tremendous success, but it takes time, and we need more people to join us and get properly stuck in.
The whole point of having leaders who aren't Caroline Lucas is to try and raise their profile so that we have more voices in the media - both leaders are excellent communicators that we want to get in front of the cameras more often.
In the social media campaigning I saw for the euros, we tried very hard to point out the differences between us and the Lib-Dems (and those posts took a lot of flack from people claiming we shouldn't be 'attacking' them because they're on 'the same side'. See the Green Party Facebook page and Rupert Read's twitter account (@greenrupertread) for just two good examples of this.
On both the leadership issue and messaging, it feels a bit damned if we do and damned if we don't; if Lucas is leader and we focus on green policy in the Euros, we're a single issue, single person party. If we choose other leaders and talk about brexit, we're wasting our best asset and abandoning our principles.
XR are not going anywhere, and nor is the climate emergency, there will be other elections that aren't seen purely as a quasi-referendum where it'll be easier to differentiate ourselves from the Lib-Dems (and harder for the to, frankly, lie about tactical voting), and we are growing our activist base. We are absolutely the party of the future (we were polling more votes in the 18-24 bracket than any other party in the week before the election) and we are here to stay; watch this space!

Anonymous said...

Not sure I agree on your idea of the Green Party having excellent leaders. Amelia Womack went on This Morning to suggest a tax on meat for the sake of bringing down carbon emissions. This was done a) in the third week of the Paris riots, which were obviously due to already high taxation and lowered standard of living felt by those living outside the capital. However the straw that broke the camels back was obviously taxing petrol: so taxing an amenity everyone uses. B) 25% of the UK is under the poverty line and she wants to increase the cost of food.
C) theres no evidence that raising taxes in this way lowers carbon emissions and frankly, I wouldn't recommend given any of the current parties any more of my money given their track record.

I think as a deputy leader shes prone to making emotional pleas that simply dont stand under scrutiny. Similar to many of the Greens policies.

Clara said...

The lib Dem party both members and those elected will happily tell lies to further their position, they're shameless, and Greens have yet to find a way to deal with this.
The two co-leaders have not found ways to ensure they are politicians mainstream media want to have on their programmes. They dont compare to Lucas, but there again who can. They need to consider tactics to ensure they are not ignored. The lib Dems succeeded despite barely having a leader which should be cause for concern in Green party ranks.

Ruthi Brandt said...

Interesting piece, thank you. However, I find it a little strange to compare the GPEW to the German Greens without discussing the wildly different political landscape the two are operating in. On a national, regional and local level German Greens operate within a PR system, which means they have had much better electoral success, and therefore are much better known than the GPEW are in England and Wales. For example the state of Baden-Württemberg is run by a Green-led coalition and its capital has a Green mayor. And of course, even in the European Elections the German system is much more proportional than the UK one, where the country is divided into regions, and regions with 3-4 MEPs representing them can hardly be called proportional.

Despite all that, in terms of number of MEPs you could say that the GPEW did better than the German Greens. Jumping from 3 MEPs to 7, the GPEW more than doubled its MEPs, whereas the German Greens jumped from 11 to 21, not quite doubling their number,

Anonymous said...

It doesn't look like this at all from outside the UK - the rest of the world saw this is as an amazing success for the Greens in Britain, overcoming the disadvantages of system that seeks to exclude them. And I'm sorry, but the clear and unremitting opposition to Brexit was part of that success, and the relative lack of clarity around Brexit explains why Labour's result was so dismal compared to what they would normally expect as an opposition with a govenrment in chaos. It's the failure of Labour that needs your energy in explaination, not trying to rubbish the only genuine left alternatives in the UK.

Pallavi said...

This article misses the main reason the Lib Dems won- its because the majority of people in this country believe that austerity is necessary. They are far more comfortable with neo-liberal economic policy than with a socialist one, unlike the Germans whose mainstream is more to the left in general.

Matthew S. said...

I agree with all the above comments, as well as all the reasons AAV mentioned above. The Greens can also be too vague; to give an example - in an online interview with Jonathan Bartley & Sian Berry, they said they wanted a "green transformation of the economy" -someone in the comments wrote: "I wish I knew what a green transformation of the economy meant".

Also, a lot of people don't know what neo-liberalism is. As both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Benn once said: politicians, in a way, have to be teachers. The Greens need to reach out to ordinary people and teach them about how the world really works and why their policies are (in their opinion) the best. A good example of this is a recent party political broadcast from the Labour party. In it they explained why public investment and significantly raising the minimum wage was a lot better for the economy than tax cuts & handouts for the filthy rich.

One last thing, the Greens (in general) are TERRIBLE with foreign policy. They never talk about wars of aggression (such as the genocidal war in Yemen), and Jonathan Bartley & Caroline Lucas (the leaders at the time) took the side of the MSM when the Syrian regime was framed for using chemical weapons against its own people.

Anonymous said...

Minimum wage doesnt work. You artificially increase the wages a worker receives but not the income the business receives. It leads to job loss and loss of hours, especially for small businesses. Theres a ream of examples: Seattle, Canadas nationalised bank (60,000 in a year made redundant I think), California. The list is endless.

Anonymous said...

Thomas seems to be struggling to come to terms with the degree of polarisation that now exists with respect to Brexit. His article, once again misses the point. In the EU elections, people were looking to make their views on Brexit known by supporting the party that was the most likely to gather votes from the people expressing their views on the single issue of Brexit.

The Limp Dims were unequivical and have been throughout. They are relatively well known and have some politicians that are recognised on the national stage. I don't know the Greens leaders and nor do most people I would guess. It is as simple as that. The same situation applied to TBP as they hoovered up the Leave vote from Labour, the Tories and UKIP.

I note this morning that it is being reported that 28% of Labour MEMBERS voted Limp Dim in the EU Election.

We can speculate what is going to happen if a GE came soon. Labour will have moved their position such that they are perceived as, effectively, Remainers. The Limp Dims and the Greens are already there of course. IF they fight each other for the Remain vote in a GE, as they probably will, they will leave the door wide open for the Tories and TBP to take seats from Labour and even win a workable majority in the HoC.

I rather suspect that the by-election on Thursday in Peterborough will leave the Labour Party in doubt about the huge hole they have dug for themselves.

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Gary said...

I hear what you're saying, and it's ALL true. But for voters it's quite simple, do they 'waste' a vote on an 'unelectable' party or do they vote LibDem who have, perhaps, a sporting chance of winning a seat here or there?

I hadn't realised until Labour lost Scotland that ALL votes are tactical. By necessity AL: parties are coalitions or 'broad churches' and when someone else comes along who can better represent that view and/or is more electable, people shift, sometimes en masse. In Scotland massive amounts went from Labour to SNP and in smaller amounts from Labour to Tory thus leaving the parties, in terms of popularity to be SNP, Conservative, Labour, Greens, LibDem (at Holyrood) in the Euros Labour has completely disappeared. That is HUGE, Labour were the most popular party for many decades and within a few short years they have lost ALL seats in one of the parliaments.

But as far as GEs go yo can't expect things to change overnight. The Greens have wrongly been seen as fringe, perhaps less so in Scotland due to being in the heart of Holyrood due to an arrangement with the ruling SNP but elsewhere nothing has changed. Any time a policy of theirs seems to be making sense and gaining popularity generally the parties of government adopt it as their own. It's good that they are so influential but this obviously prevents popular support from gaining traction.

I'm reminded of how many times Farage was allowed on QT to build support for party and policies without ANY MPs and yet the Greens DO have MPs but don't get the same 'support' from the media.

People often complain about media bias, sadly they are correct...

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