Thursday, 31 October 2019

Is this the dodgiest Lib-Dem bar chart ever?



The Lib-Dems are absolutely notorious for producing absurdly misleading bar charts aimed at duping the gullible into voting for them, but this year the Lib-Dems in North East Somerset have absolutely outdone themselves by producing one of the most shockingly deceptive political bar charts ever.

The North East Somerset constituency is a Tory safe seat for Jacob Rees-Mogg on 54%, with Labour trailing almost 20 points behind on 35%, and the Lib-Dems in a distant 3rd on just 8%.


So in order to produce a favourable bar chart for themselves the Lib-Dems conducted an absurd push poll asking "Imagine the result in your constituency was expected to be very close between the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidate, and none of the other parties were competitive..."

They created a scenario that doesn't exist in reality, purely in order to manipulate non-Tory voters into saying they would vote Lib-Dem.

To put what they're doing into perspective, it's useful to consider the biggest constituency swing of all during the 2017 General Election, which happened in Gordon, north east Scotland.

The swing in Gordon was 20.4%, representing just over 15,000 votes.

If Labour were to defy the odds to win North East Somerset from 2nd place, they'd need a huge swing of 19% (over 10,000 votes).

If the Lib-Dems were to take the seat from 3rd place they'd need an unprecedented swing of over 35% (24,500+ votes).

The Lib-Dems are absolutely desperate to trick people into supporting their hopeless lost cause.

And the method the Lib-Dems have come up with to con people into voting for them is to pretend that they're the second party (when Labour are), and that Labour are in a distant third (when that's actually where the Lib-Dems finished last time).

If you ever needed more evidence that the Lib-Dems simply can't be trusted to be honest about anything, this staggeringly dishonest abuse of statistics, polling, and observable reality 
is surely it.

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3 comments:

Mr. Magoo said...

In the case of a hung parliament, the Liberal Demoncraps have ruled out doing a deal with left-wing Labour, but not with the Conservatives. A vote for the Fib-Dems is a vote for 5 more years of austerity. They have NOTHING to offer the people of this country other than opposition to Brexit.

Gulliver Foyle said...

The LibDem's were reduced to a stump of MP'after 2015's general election, taking the brunt of the anger so many had at propping up a vindictive, nasty Tory agenda of unnecessary cuts and scapegoating of the poor and disabled.

One of the many ironies of Brexit is that it's revitalised the LibDems electoral prospects, the problem we all have if we do live in an actual marginal seat where the LibDem's have a 'genuine' chance of defeating an incumbent Tory is, do you hold your nose and hope they've learnt the lesson of 2015 or not....

I have to say, I've got little trust in the current libDem leadership to have learned this lesson.

Anonymous said...

"If Labour were to defy the odds to win North East Somerset from 2nd place, they'd need a huge swing of 19% (over 10,000 votes)".


Your understanding of swing is wrong.

The Conservative lead in the constituency is 18.9%. And so the swing needed for Labour to win is 9.5%. Unlikely but not impossible. I would be delighted if that happened.