Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts

Thursday, 7 June 2018

The contrasting fates of Alan Turing and the traitor Lord Sempill


Most British people have heard of Alan Turing. You would have to have studiously avoided learning about the the history of Second World War, computer science, code breaking and gay rights issues in order to have remained ignorant of one of the greatest mathematical minds of the 20th Century and his extraordinary contribution to the British war effort. Fewer people have heard of William Forbes-Sempill, 19th Lord Sempill, yet his influence on the British war effort was no less dramatic.

Alan Turing was born in London to Julius Mathison Turing, a recently returned Indian civil servant and Ethel Sara Stoney, the daughter of a noted railway engineer. As a child he attended private schools, eventually earning a place at Cambridge University where he graduated with a first class honours degree in Mathematics. Turing managed to thrive at establishment institutions like Sherbourne and Cambridge University because of his intelligence, however he was treated with suspicion by the establishment elite due to his non-aristocratic background, eccentric nature, intimidating genius and his homosexual tendencies.

After obtaining a PhD from the prestigious Princeton University in New Jersey he returned to the UK to work with the secret Government Code and Cypher School (GCCS) intelligence service where he concentrated on cryptanalysis of the German Enigma code

During the Second World War Turing was an important figure at the Bletchley Park codebreaking facility where he made many invaluable contributions to the deciphering of complex German military codes. He was described by fellow codebreaker Asa Briggs "the genius" that Bletchley Park needed.

It has been estimated that the work of Turing and his colleagues at Bletchley Park shortened the war by between two and four years, and that without their contributions the outcome of the war would have been uncertain. Turing didn't only make a significant contribution to the British war effort, he also did pioneering work in computing and is widely considered to be the father of computer science and artificial intelligence.

William Forbes-Sempill was the Eton educated son of John Forbes-Sempill, 9th Baronet of Craigievar and hereditary member of the House of Lords

During the First World War the younger Sempill served as a pilot with the Royal Flying Corps and then with the Royal Navy Air Service. He was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for his service during the war.


Captain Sempill showing a Gloster Sparrowhawk
to Admiral Togo Heihachiro, in 1921.
In the aftermath of the war he led a British deputation to Japan where he assisted the Japanese navy in setting up an airforce base and establishing their aircraft carrier fleet. Sempill received a personal letter from the Japanese Prime Minister Tomosaburo Kato thanking him for his work with the Japanese navy, in which his contribution was described as "almost epoch-making" and he later received Japan's highest honour, the Order of the Rising Sun, for his "especially meritorious military service".

After American concerns were raised about the growing naval strength of the Japanese, Sempill's mission in Japan was officially discontinued. However Sempill carried on providing support to the Japanese by passing classified military and technical information to Japanese Naval attache in London, Captain Teijiro Toyoda. 

In 1925 he was questioned about his distribution of official secrets, but for undisclosed reasons he was never prosecuted under the official secrets act.

By the 1930s Sempill was an active member of several far-right, fascist and Anti-Semitic organisations including the Anglo-German Fellowship, The Link and Archibald Ramsay's The Right Club, (which was a secretive organisation with the aim of ridding the Tory party of Jews). Sempill was far from the only member of the British establishment elite to embrace the fascist ideology. The founder of the British Union of Fascists was Sir Oswald Mosley, 6th Baronet, of Ancoats, whose fascist activities received a lot of positive press from the 1st Viscount Rothsmere's Daily Mail newspaper. 

The British Union of Fascists counted dozens of Knights, Earls, Dukes, Barons, Lords, Ladies and Viscounts amongst its members. The Royal family, who were at the very epicentre centre of this orgy of hereditary entitlement and establishment ennoblement, also had a number of keen fascists, Edward VIII maintained notoriously close relations with Nazi Germany, causing their arms industry minister Albert Speer to lament that "I am certain that through him, permanent friendly relations could have been achieved. If he had stayed, everything would have been different. His abdication was a severe loss for us.". The Queen mother famously stated that she would have been happy for the Nazis to invade the UK, as long as they kept the Royal family, and the Royal adults famously taught the infant Elizabeth to do Nazi salutes in the gardens of Balmoral castle.

Most of the intelligence files on Sempill's activities during the 1930s and 1940s mysteriously "disappeared" from the national archive, however it is known that he continued to receive regular payments from the Japanese government owned Mitsubishi Corporation, and entertained several high ranking Nazis throughout the period.

Despite his track record of passing classified information to foreign powers and his collusion with fascists, Sempill was assigned to the Admiralty in 1939 on the outbreak of war with Nazi Germany. 

Sempill's position allowed him access to highly sensitive information about the latest British military hardware and official secrets. In June 1940 MI5 discovered that Sempill was still receiving payments from Mitsubishi, and an investigation revealed that he was almost certainly passing secret information to the Japanese. However the Attorney General (Lord Donald Somervell, Baron Somervell of Harrow) advised against prosecution, and Sempill was allowed to keep his position in the Admiralty and his access to sensitive information. 

In 1941 Sempill personally intervened to secure the release of the Japanese ambassador Makahara, who had been arrested under suspicion of spying.

Six months after the August 1941 Newfoundland Conference meeting between British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and the U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Japanese Embassy in London sent detailed notes about the meeting back to Tokyo. These encrypted notes were intercepted and decoded at Bletchley Park and the transcript was passed to Churchill, who noted that they were "very accurate", Three months later, further notes on Churchill's personal agenda and inner circle were intercepted on their way from Japanese Embassy in London to Tokyo. An investigation by Anthony Eden concluded that only two men could have created the notes: Commander McGrath or Lord Sempill.


The British Prime Minister Winston Churchill intervened
to protect Lord Sempill despite a mountain of
 evidence the he'd been spying for the Japanese.
On 9 October 1941 Churchill gave instructions to "clear him out while time remains". The following week the Admiralty confronted Sempill and told him he could either resign or be fired. Sempill protested, and Churchill intervened to say "I had not contemplated Lord Sempill being required to resign his commission, but only to be employed elsewhere in the Admiralty". Sempill was then shifted to a post in northern Scotland, however he still continued to assist the Japanese. 

In Early December a raid on his office found him in possession of classified documents that he had been instructed to return months previously. Then around a week later he was caught making phone calls to the Japanese (more than a week after the Japanese invasion of British Malaya and their attack on Pearl Harbour). Sempill was made to resign, but he was never prosecuted for his treasonous relationship with the Japanese that did so much to help them to develop the technology they used to kill thousands of British and American servicemen during the Pacific War.

Sempill's activities were never made public during his lifetime and he continued to live the privileged life of establishment nobility, keeping his position in the House of Lords that he had inherited from his father, and even receiving the chairmanships of the Institute of Advanced Motorists and the British Gliding Association.

Sempill died peacefully in 1956 having never faced punishment or public criticism for his crimes. His hereditary seat in the Lords passed to his daughter Ann, and his Baronetry to his younger brother Ewan. It was only in 2002 that the scale of his treachery and his fascist and Anti-Semitic tendencies came to light after classified documents about his activities were finally released into the public domain.


All of the vital codebreaking activities that took place at Bletchley Park
remained shrouded in secrecy until well into the 1970s.
Returning to Alan Turing; he had a much harder time after the end of the war. All of his codebreaking work was classified by the government so he could never talk about his extraordinary contribution to the war effort.

Turing continued his work with computers, famously devising the Turing Test as a means of determining whether a computer has achieved artificial intelligence, a test that remains an essential concept in the philosophy of artificial intelligence. He also developed the LU Decomposition method (complex algebra) and did pioneering work in the field of morphogenesis, (which is the study of how biological organisms develop their shape).


In 1952 Turing was charged with the "crime" of Gross Indecency after admitting to having had a homosexual relationship with a man who later robbed his house. He was found guilty and given the choice of imprisonment or chemical castration. 

This conviction meant that his security clearance was revoked, which meant that he was barred from continuing his cryptographic work with the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ).

Turing chose to be chemically castrated rather than face imprisonment.


On the 8th of June 1954 Turing was found dead by his cleaner. A post mortem examination determined that the cause of death was cyanide poisoning, however no forensic examination of the property took place, and his death was officially attributed to suicide.

Many people, including his mother, refused to accept the suicide verdict. The ambiguous circumstances of his death and the lack of a thorough investigation mean that nobody will ever know whether his death was intentional suicide, accidental poisoning, or the result of foul play.


Turing's brilliance was not recognised until years after his death. In 1966 the Turing Award was established to for technical contributions to the computing community. It is widely considered to be the computing world's highest honour, equivalent to a Nobel Prize in computing. It took until 2009 for the British establishment to make an official public apology, which was made by Prime Minister Gordon Brown on behalf of the British government for the way in which Turing was treated after the war.

The similarity between the two men lies in the way the war conduct of both of them remained shrouded in secrecy until long after their deaths. Sempill was never exposed as the traitor he was, and it seems that somebody intervened to ensure that many presumably incriminating files from the 1930s and 1940s "disappeared", never to reach the public domain at all. Meanwhile, all the hugely important work undertaken at Bletchley Park remained secret until the 1970s, meaning that Turing's outstanding contribution to the war effort was not recognised until long after his death.


In the UK, living in a castle like this and an Eton education 
seems to provide immunity from prosecution for treason.
Had the public been allowed to know about the codebreaking work at Bletchley Park, Winston Churcill's famous speech about the valiant fighter pilots during the Battle of Britain could easily have been made about the codebreakers too; "never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few".

What is remarkable about the contrasting fates of these two men is the way that members of the British establishment (including the Prime Minister and the Attorney General) repeatedly intervened to protect one of their own, despite his fascist tendencies and decades of treasonous behavior, whilst the establishment people Turing had known and associated with during his time at Cambridge University and at Bletchley Park refused to intervene to help him when criminal charges were brought against him for the trivial offence of engaging in homosexual acts, despite his outstanding contribution to the war effort.

It seems amazing that British nobility, including the Prime Minister, would repeatedly intervene to ensure that another member of their privileged class avoided prosecution for the incredibly serious crime of passing official secrets to foreign powers at a time of war, yet wouldn't do anything to lean on prosecutors to drop the charges against a war hero and genius who happened to have been born into the "lower social orders".

The British nobility turned a blind eye the most heinous of crimes (espionage, treason, fraternising with the enemy, Anti-Semitism)  because it was one of their own class doing it, yet they refused to intervene to prevent a true war hero from suffering homosexual prosecution and chemical castration, simply because he was not one of the upper classes.

This disparity in the way these two men were treated illustrates the classism that is still rampant in Britain today.

If you're one of the establishment elitists you can do pretty much anything without fear of criticism or punishment from your fellow elitists who maintain an enormously disproportionate influence over the criminal justice system, the political system, and the media.

However if you're from non-elitist stock, woe betide you if you ever dare to step out of line, because the establishment elitists will make you suffer for it.

It's one set of rules for the establishment class, and another much harsher and more unforgiving set of rules for the rest of us. It's the way it's always been, and it's the way it will continue to be until something is done to confront the absolute scourge of classism in Britain.



 Another Angry Voice  is a "Pay As You Feel" website. You can have access to all of my work for free, or you can choose to make a small donation to help me keep writing. The choice is entirely yours.



Monday, 5 September 2016

If "Brexit means Brexit" what does Brexit mean?


Theresa May is incredibly fond of the expression "Brexit means Brexit", It's obviously a good sound bite that plays well with focus groups, because if it wasn't she wouldn't keep repeating it. The obvious problem is that it's transparently meaningless gibberish,

Her advisers have told her that it plays well with the hard-right demographics the Tories need to target in order to maintain their grip on power, so she keeps repeating it despite the fact she knows that it's fatuous rubbish with no meaning whatever.


Tautologies

you don't have to be a genius to understand what a tautology is. A tautology is a meaningless phrase that imparts no knowledge whatever. An example of a tautological statement is the phrase "I like chocolate because chocolate tastes nice". This statement is completely meaningless because "I like chocolate" has the same basic meaning as "I think chocolate tastes nice", so saying "I like chocolate because chocolate tastes nice" is clearly just a reiteration of the same thing twice.

"Brexit means Brexit" is even worse than the chocolate tautology because it doesn't even impart any knowledge about what Brexit is, or what the person is saying it actually feels about about the subject.

It's insultingly meaningless rubbish.

What is Brexit?

We all know that Brexit means that the UK is going to quit the EU, but the question is "how?". There are all kinds of imaginable scenarios, some of them realistic and some of them ludicrous fantasy land nonsense.

You'd have to be utterly delusional to think that the 27 remaining EU states are going to just let the UK have its cake and eat it by staying part of the EU single market (the biggest free trade agreement in human history) without agreeing to free movement of labour. 


Just try to look at it from the EU perspective. If they let the UK quit the EU and keep the biggest benefit without agreeing to the other terms, it would obviously incentivise all of the other member states to quit the EU in the hope of keeping access to the single market and renegotiating all of the stuff they don't particularly like.

A "quit and get your cake and eat it" agreement for the UK would cause the collapse of the EU. You don't have to be pro-EU or anti-EU to understand this fact, it's just completely obvious.

Cake

The  Tories clearly didn't bother making a contingency plan for what to do if people actually voted for Brexit. If you didn't believe it before, the fact that Theresa May is still spouting fatuous tautologies like "Brexit means Brexit" ten weeks after the referendum is all the proof you need that the Tories are trying to wing it.

The choice is obvious, the UK government has to agree to free movement of labour in order to retain access to the single market, or they have to quit the single market in order to give the 'Kippers and Biffers their wet dream of slamming the door on European migrant workers.

The Tories know that quitting the single market would be an economic disaster because they've just had a dire warning from the Japanese that their significant investments in the UK are dependent on access to the single market, and also because they know that not slamming the door on EU  worker migration would infuriate the xenophobia infused hard-right demographic that Theresa May has repeatedly pandered to with her anti-migrant ranting.

The Tories know perfectly well that they can't have their cake and eat it by keeping access to the single market and fulfilling the xenophobic fantasies of one of their core demographics. So instead of explaining to the public whether they're going to get their cake or get to eat it, Theresa May and her Tory chums are intent on just repeating the platitudinous gibberish that "cake is cake" in the hope that the majority of Tory voters are incapable of spotting insultingly tautological guff for what it is.

What is the Brexit plan?

It's shocking that the Tory government didn't even bother devising a coherent contingency plan in case the public voted for Brexit. Several of David Cameron's own government ministers pleaded for the public to vote Brexit, and even more of Theresa May's cabinet were Brexiters. The fact that the Tories still haven't devised a coherent Brexit negotiation strategy after ten weeks is absolutely appalling.

It's remarkable that Theresa May and her Tory minions have taken to
 crowing that the economic fallout from the Brexit vote isn't as bad as predicted. They know perfectly well that the dire economic consequences were predicted on the understanding that David Cameron would invoke Article 50 on the day after the referendum (as he promised). They know that he chickened out and that the scenario was completely changed, but they still want to make as much political capital as they can out of Cameron's dishonesty.

In reality it's understandable that Cameron chickened out of pressing the economic self-destruct button because despite all his faults he knew it would be an atrocious idea. It's also perfectly understandable that Theresa May's government are clearly intent on stalling too.

The problem is that this feeble effort to try to spin their abject cowardice into a brilliant economic success story are a crystal clear demonstration of the contempt towards the general public shared by the Westminster establishment and their chums in the mainstream press.


As far as these self-entitled and aloof establishment insiders are concerned, some focus group-approved tautological gibberish about how "Brexit means Brexit" is easily sufficient to placate the masses over the lose-lose situation we're in. However to those of us who are not so easily distracted by vacuous tautologies, the ten weeks the Tory government have spent blatantly stalling and lamely propogandising about how Brexit isn't such a bad thing (despite the fact it hasn't happened yet) are absolute proof that the Westminster establishment club don't have the faintest idea what to do about the mess that David Cameron's reckless EU gamble has left them in.

The Tories can either either press the economic self-destruct button by quitting the single market, or they can infuriate one of their most fundamental demographics by agreeing to keep free movement of labour in order to avoid committing economic suicide.

The Tories know perfectly well that they're in a lose-lose situation, but they have such contempt for the general public that they think that if they keep repeating tautological crap like "Brexit means Brexit" instead of actually explaining what it is they're hoping to achieve out of this dire situation, that we'll all just eventually forget about the fact that lying Tories like Boris Johnson landed us in this situation in the first place.

They think you're an idiot

As long as Theresa May and the Tories keep talking in meaningless tautologies about how "Brexit means Brexit" it should serve as absolute confirmation that these people see you as a cognitively illiterate idiot who will continue, week after week, accepting a meaningless tautological platitude in lieu of anything even remotely resembling an actual plan of action for how the UK is going to quit the EU without either committing an act of reckless economic self-harm (by quitting the single market), or completely pissing off the xenophobic "make the furriners go away" hard-right demographic the Tory party are so intent on pandering to.


 Another Angry Voice  is a "Pay As You Feel" website. You can have access to all of my work for free, or you can choose to make a small donation to help me keep writing. The choice is entirely yours.




OR


Saturday, 6 August 2016

Unelected technocrats use the Brexit mess to launch more QE for the private banks


In the wake of the financial sector insolvency crisis the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (a tiny band of unelected technocrats) decided to take the radical step of creating vast amounts of money out of nothing and flooding the financial markets with it. The policy was called Quantitative Easing (QE) and in the end £375 billion in new money was created and flooded into the financial markets.

Post-crisis QE

There were plenty of critics at the time who pointed to the Japanese experience (Japan used QE to keep their zombie banks alive then suffered two decades of economic stagnation called "the lost decades") and complained about the negative effect of dragging interest rates down to the all time record low of 0.5% on things like savings, pension funds and the investment portfolios of insurance companies.

Times were difficult and unorthodox economic policies were certainly required to resolve a huge financial sector crisis that orthodox economic theories had completely failed to predict.

In hindsight Quantitative Easing turned out to be an incredibly poor method of stimulating economic growth. Instead of directing the windfall of newly created cash towards economically beneficial activities (infrastructure projects, jobs, business loans, research, house building) the private banks simply used it to continue their previous behaviour of inflating unsustainable speculative house price and stock market bubbles, gambling on in the almost completely unregulated derivatives casino and maintaining their obscene bonus culture.

The Bank of England's own evidence showed that 40% of the direct economic benefit of Quantitative Easing ended up going to the 5% of wealthiest households.

Direct Quantitative Easing

One of Jeremy Corbyn's most important economic ideas is that if the central bank is going to create money out of nothing then it needs to be injected directly into the economy rather than being given to the private banks to gamble with as they please.

Corbyn's idea is that newly created cash should be directed at economically beneficial projects (infrastructure projects, jobs, education, house building, industrial development ...) via a National Investment Bank (something I'd been advocating years before Jeremy Corbyn became Labour Party leader).

Of course Corbyn's idea makes a lot of sense because private banks can never direct the money to achieve the best outcomes for wider society because they have a legal obligation to ensure the most profitable returns for their shareholders. The priority of the private banks is to make profits for themselves, the priority of a National Investment Bank would be to ensure the best returns on investment for the wider economy.

Corbyn's Direct QE idea has predictably been attacked by the incredibly hostile Westminster establishment club and their attack-dogs in the mainstream media. They've repeatedly derided Direct QE as nonsense and ridiculed its proponents for supposedly "believing in magic money trees".

It's funny how in establishment minds the creation of money out of nothing to give to private banks to do with as they please is referred to as "unconventional monetary policy" but when someone suggests creating money out of nothing to invest in infrastructure, jobs and house building suddenly it's "believing in magic money trees"!

Post-Brexit QE


After 37% of the UK electorate voted in favour of a haphazard abandonment of the EU with nothing even resembling a coherent plan for what comes next the UK economy took a huge (widely predicted) hit. The Bank of England revised their growth figures for 2017 downwards from 2.3% to just 0.8%, which is the biggest downgrade in their growth forecast since records began!

The BoE response to this self-inflicted economic turmoil was to announce another huge tranche of QE for the private banks. £60 billion in the same kind of QE as before and another £100 billion created out of nothing with a stipulation that the banks actually lend it rather than hoarding it (although the punishment if they don't lend it doesn't seem to be all that clear), plus an additional £10 billion to buy up a load of corporate bonds.

The Bank of England are well aware that their first experiment with QE was a cash cow for the wealthiest individuals in society to milk, and that very little of it ended up directed towards economically beneficial stuff like infrastructure investment, industry, house building, education, research and development ... yet they're doing more of the same.

Even as they announced their "more of the same" tactics, the Bank of England admitted that their interventions would neither be able to prevent the calamitous post-Brexit decline in economic expectations nor prevent some 250,000 job losses.

It really does beggar belief that the Bank of England have decided to recycle the exact same monetary policies that failed last time around. Given the findings of their own report about the last round of QE. One conclusion is that members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee have the intention of further enriching the already extremely wealthy and no real concern for the long-term prospects of the wider UK economy (otherwise they would surely be trying a different form of unconventional monetary policy). The other conclusion is that 
they're ignorant of the findings of their own report and they don't have a clue what they're doing, their policies being nothing more than mindless knee-jerk reactions to an economic situation they don't have the faintest clue how to actually resolve.

Either they're deliberately and cynically using the Brexit mess to serve the interests of the wealthiest minority, or they don't actually have a clue what they're doing. Neither explanation inspires any confidence that this tiny band of unelected technocrats are capable of steering the UK in the right direction.


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OR

Sunday, 26 August 2012

Quantitative Easing explained


Over the last few years there has been much talk about Quantitative Easing in the economic news. Most people have picked up the fact that it is a form of money creation, however there is still a lot of confusion about what it is for, and very limited public understanding of the wider economic consequences of pumping vast amounts of "new money" into the economy.

Many people think of Quantitative Easing (QE) as a form of money printing, however the QE apologist is always keen to point out that "it isn't actually money printing" because no new banknotes are actually printed up. They are presumably keen to make this point in order to prevent the public from making mental comparisons with hyperinflationary economies such as Wiemar Germany and Zimbabwe. The problem with this QE apologist argument is that it is nothing but a semantic defence: OK, there are no printing presses involved, but "magicing up" hundreds of billions with what is little more than an accounting trick is hardly any better is it? Someone at the Bank of England or the US Federal Reserve types a few numbers into a computer and voilà, they have tens or hundreds of billions in new currency to play with.

The idea behind Quantitative Easing is that the central bank uses this supply of newly created money to buy up government bonds and other financial sector assets such as gilts. The intended purpose being to drive down yields (interest payments) on government bonds and to provide more financial sector liquidity (the ability to immediately perform economic actions like buying, selling, or paying debt) by replacing financial sector asset holdings with cash.

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional approach that has been introduced in economies where the use of normal expansionary monetary policies has become impossible. The main reasons that normal monetary policies no longer work are that base interest rates have already been reduced to such an extent that it is not really possible to lower them any further (the Bank of England base rate has been held at the all time low of 0.5% for over four years). The traditional tool of reducing financial capital requirements (the small proportion of capital that a bank must keep in reserve when it makes loans) would be insane given that the neoliberal economic meltdown came about largely because so many financial sector institutions recklessly over-leveraged themselves betting on rubbish like sub-prime mortgages, Greek government bonds, Irish bank shares and Spanish property assets in the first place.


Essentially the maintenance of all time low interest rates and the creation of vast sums of "new money" can be seen as concurring policies, since both are controlled by the central banks. In the case of the UK economy, the Bank of England lowered interest rates in the wake of the neoliberal financial sector meltdown of 2007-08 and then began "magicing up" money once they couldn't slash interest rates any further. The obvious reason for the combined strategy of negative real interest rates policy (NIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) is to prevent the recklessly over-leveraged financial sector institutions collapsing into their own black holes of debt. Since 2008 the Bank of England has created £375 billion (as of August 2012) for distribution to the financial sector.

Quantitative Easing is only possible in countries that have not signed away their monetary autonomy. The central banks in the US, UK and Japan can control their own currencies, whilst Eurozone countries such as Spain and Italy have signed away the ability to adjust money supply to the European Central Bank. Take this comparison between the UK and Spain. Both countries suffered from broadly similar economic crises; recklessly over-leveraged banks, the implosion of "easy credit" backed property bubbles, rising levels of personal and corporate debt and rising unemployment and underemployment. The economic chaos in Spain has driven up the cost of government borrowing to practically unsustainable levels (6-7% interest) whilst the Bank of England have managed to entice investors to buy up British government bonds with the virtual guarantee that they will be bought up for cash via Quantitative Easing, a policy which has driven the yields on UK bonds down to all time historic lows.

The UK Chancellor George Osborne likes to boast that these historic lows in the cost of government borrowing have been achieved because "the market" has confidence in his barmy "cut now, think later" indiscriminate austerity policies. However the real reason that yields have fallen is that the Bank of England have Quantitatively Eased £375 billion into the economy in order to artificially manipulate interest rates on UK government bonds. Either Osborne is being utterly disingenuous, or he has very little idea of how the post neoliberal meltdown economy actually works.

There are stark warnings from history about the dangers of Quantitative Easing. Japan was the first major economy to try it out in the 1990s after the collapse of an unsustainable property boom. Since then the Japanese economy has stagnated and Japanese government borrowing has risen well above 200% of GDP. The economic stagnation since QE was introduced in Japan have led to the period being described as "the lost decades".

The Bank of England has been forced into taking the same kind of measures in order to prevent systemic collapse of the UK financial sector. Without QE and another £900 billion in direct government interventions (bailouts, nationalisations etc) several of Britain's largest banks would certainly have collapsed into insolvency, bringing down many other institutions with them. There is a strong case to be argued that this should have been allowed to happen in order to clear out the recklessly speculative banks and allow more prudent and competent financial sector institutions to increase their market share (creative destruction). QE (and the direct government bailouts) can be seen as a desperate attempt to maintain the economic status quo by postponing the inevitable financial sector collapse, a strategy often described by Max Keiser as "kicking the can down the road".

As with all economic policies, there are winners and losers. The Bank of England's own research estimates that QE has disproportionately benefited the wealthiest 5% of British households, with over 40% of the economic benefits of QE going to them. The fact that the extremely wealthy are the main beneficiaries of QE is extremely concerning, since the richest 5% are also by far the most likely to avoid paying tax on their gains by funnelling them through elaborate tax-dodging scams, meaning that much of this newly created money has already been siphoned directly out of the UK economy into tax havens such as the Cayman Islands or Liechtenstein.

Another problem with the already wealthy getting the lion's share of the economic benefit is that they have a much lower Marginal Propensity to Consume, which is a fancy way of saying that the rich spend a lower proportion of their wealth in the "real economy", so the economy would have benefited more had the benefit of QE gone to the poor and ordinary, rather than to the already wealthy speculator class.


Since the super-rich have taken a disproportionate amount of the benefit of QE, it is quite obvious that ordinary people are paying a disproportionate amount of the cost. There are several explanations, the main ones being wage deflation and capital value deflation. The simplest example to explain is the case of savers, who have seen returns on their savings plummet since 2008. The Bank of England admits that savers have lost £70 billion since 2008 due to low interest rates, but this is an extremely conservative estimate since it fails to take into account soaring inflation. Ordinary working people are also losing out since their wages are failing to keep pace with inflation. The prices of fuel, food, utilities bills and public transport have soared, whilst wages for the majority of workers have barely increased for several years.

It is absolutely clear that the beneficiaries of these twin policies of maintaining extremely low interest rates and "magicing up" £375 billion in new cash are the extremely wealthy and the reckless speculator class, whilst the losers are ordinary working people and prudent people like savers and pensioners. There is a growing body of evidence (which includes the Bank of England's own research) to demonstrate that the policies of Quantitative Easing and maintaining ultra-low interest rates are nothing but a scheme to transfer wealth to the super rich economic minority, the very people that caused the economic crisis in the first place with their reckless gambling.





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Thursday, 24 May 2012

The contrasting fates of Alan Turing and Lord Sempill

Alan Turing, genius and war hero.
Most British people have heard of Alan Turing. You would have to have studiously avoided learning about the the history of Second World War, computer science, codebraking and gay rights issues in order to have remained ignorant of one of the greatest mathematical minds of the 20th Century and his extraordinary contribution to the British war effort. Fewer people have heard of William Forbes-Sempill, 19th Lord Sempill, yet his influence on the British war effort was no less dramatic.

Alan Turing was born in London to Julius Mathison Turing, a recently returned Indian civil servant and Ethel Sara Stoney, the daughter of a noted railway engineer. As a child he attended private schools, eventually earning a place at Cambridge University where he graduated with a first class honours degree in Mathematics. Turing managed to thrive at establishment institutions like Sherbourne and Cambridge University because of his intelligence, however he was treated with suspicion by the establishment elite due to his non-aristocratic background, eccentric nature, intimidating genius and his homosexual tendencies.

After obtaining a Phd from the prestigious Princeton University in New Jersey he returned to the UK to work with the secret Government Code and Cypher School (GCCS) intelligence service where he concentrated on cryptanalysis of the German Enigma code. During the Second World War Turing was an important figure at the Bletchley Park codebreaking facility where he made many invaluable contributions to the deciphering of complex German military codes. He was described by fellow codebreaker Asa Briggs "the genius" that Bletchley Park needed.

It has been estimated that the work of Turing and his colleagues at Bletchley Park shortened the war by between two and four years, and that without their contributions the outcome of the war would have been uncertain. Turing didn't only make a significant contribution to the British war effort, he also did pioneering work in computing and is widely considered to be the father of computer science and artificial intelligence.

William Forbes-Sempill was the Eton educated son of John Forbes-Sempill, 9th Baronet of Craigievar and hereditary member of the House of Lords. During the First World War the younger Sempill served as a pilot with the Royal Flying Corps and then with the Royal Navy Air Service. He was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for his service during the war.


Captain Sempill showing a Gloster Sparrowhawk
to Admiral Togo Heihachiro, in 1921.
In the aftermath of the war he led a British Deputation to Japan where he assisted the Japanese navy in setting up an airforce base and establishing their aircraft carrier fleet. Sempill received a personal letter from the Japanese Prime Minister Tomosaburo Kato thanking him for his work with the Japanese navy, in which his contribution was described as "almost epoch-making" and he later received Japan's highest honour, the Order of the Rising Sun, for his especially meritorious military service.

After American concerns were raised about the growing naval strength of the Japanese, Sempill's mission in Japan was officially discontinued. However Sempill carried on providing support to the Japanese by passing classified military and technical information to Japanese Naval attache in London, Captain Teijiro Toyoda. In 1925 he was questioned about his distribution of official secrets, but for undisclosed reasons he was never prosecuted under the official secrets act.

By the 1930s Sempill was an active member of several far-right, fascist and Anti-Semitic organisations including the Anglo-German Fellowship, The Link and Archibald Ramsay's The Right Club, (which was a secretive organisation with the aim of ridding the Tory party of Jews). Sempill was far from the only member of the British establishment elite to embrace the fascist ideology. The founder of the British Union of Fascists was Sir Oswald Mosley, 6th Baronet, of Ancoats, whose fascist activities received a lot of positive press from the 1st Viscount Rothsmere's Daily Mail newspaper. 

The British Union of Fascists counted dozens of Knights, Earls, Dukes, Barons, Lords, Ladies and Viscounts amongst its members. The Royal family, who were at the very epicentre centre of this orgy of hereditary entitlement and establishment ennoblement, also had a number of keen fascists, Edward VIII maintained notoriously close relations with Nazi Germany, causing their arms industry minister Albert Speer to lament that "I am certain that through him, permanent friendly relations could have been achieved. If he had stayed, everything would have been different. His abdication was a severe loss for us.". The Queen mother famously stated that she would have been happy for the Nazis to invade the UK, as long as they kept the Royal family.

Most of the intelligence files on Sempill's activities during the 1930s and 1940s mysteriously "disappeared" from the national archive, however it is known that he continued to receive regular payments from the Japanese government owned Mitsubishi Corporation and entertained several high ranking Nazis throughout the period.

Despite his track record of passing classified information to foreign powers and his fascist tendencies, Sempill was assigned to the Admiralty in 1939 on the outbreak of war with Nazi Germany. His position allowed him access to highly sensitive information about the latest British military hardware and official secrets. In June 1940 MI5 discovered that Sempill was still receiving payments from Mitsubishi, and an investigation revealed that he was almost certainly passing secret information to the Japanese. However the Attorney General (Lord Donald Somervell, Baron Somervell of Harrow) advised against prosecution, and Sempill was allowed to keep his position in the Admiralty and his access to sensitive information. In 1941 Sempill personally intervened to secure the release of the Japanese ambassador Makahara, who had been arrested under suspicion of spying.

Six months after the August 1941 Newfoundland Conference meeting between British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and the U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Japanese Embassy in London sent detailed notes about the meeting back to Tokyo. These encrypted notes were intercepted and decoded at Bletchley Park and the transcript was passed to Churchill, who noted that they were "very accurate", Three months later, further notes on Churchill's personal agenda and inner circle were intercepted on their way from Japanese Embassy in London to Tokyo. An investigation by Anthony Eden concluded that only two men could have created the notes: Commander McGrath or Lord Sempill.


The British Prime Minister Winston Churchill intervened
to protect Lord Sempill despite a mountain of
 evidence the he'd been spying for the Japanese.
On 9 October 1941 Churchill gave instructions to "clear him out while time remains." The following week the Admiralty confronted Sempill and told him he could either resign or be fired. Sempill protested, and Churchill intervened to say "I had not contemplated Lord Sempill being required to resign his commission, but only to be employed elsewhere in the Admiralty." Sempill was then shifted to a post in northern Scotland, However he continued to assist the Japanese. In Early December a raid on his office found him in possession of classified documents that he had been instructed to return months previously. Then around a week later he was caught making phone calls to the Japanese (more than a week after the Japanese invasion of British Malaya and their attack on Pearl Harbour). Sempill was made to resign, but he was never prosecuted for his treasonous relationship with the Japanese that did so much to help them to develop the technology they used to kill thousands of British and American servicemen during the Pacific War.

Sempill's activities were never made public during his lifetime and he continued to live the life of establishment nobility, keeping his position in the House of Lords that he had inherited from his father, and he was even given the chairmanships of the Institute of Advanced Motorists and the British Gliding Association.

Sempill died peacefully in 1956 having never faced punishment or public criticism for his crimes. His hereditary seat in the Lords passed to his daughter Ann, and his Baronetry to his younger brother Ewan. It was only in 2002 that the scale of his treachery and his fascist and Anti-Semitic tendencies came to light after classified documents about his activities were finally released into the public domain.


All of the vital codebreaking activities that took place at Bletchley Park
remained shrouded in secrecy until well into the 1970s.
Returning to Alan Turing; he had a much harder time after the end of the war. All of his codebreaking work was classified by the government so he could never talk about his great contribution to the war effort.

Turing continued his work with computers, famously devising the Turing Test as a means of determining whether computer has achieved artificial intelligence, a test that remains an essential concept in the philosophy of artificial intelligence. He also developed the LU Decomposition method (complex algebra) and did pioneering work in the field of morphogenesis, (which is the study of how biological organisms develop their shape).


In 1952 Turing was charged with the "crime" of gross Indecency after admitting to having had a homosexual relationship with a man who later robbed his house. He was found guilty and given the choice of imprisonment or chemical castration. This conviction meant that his security clearance was revoked, which meant that he was barred from continuing his cryptographic work with the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ).

Turing chose to be chemically castrated rather than face imprisonment.


On the 8th of June 1954 Turing was found dead by his cleaner. A post mortem examination determined that the cause of death was cyanide poisoning, however no forensic examination of the property took place, and his death was officially attributed to suicide.

 Many people including his mother refused to accept the suicide verdict. The ambiguous circumstances of his death and the lack of a thorough investigation mean that nobody will ever know whether his death was intentional suicide, accidental poisoning or by means of foul play.


Turing's brilliance was not recognised until years after his death. In 1966 the Turing Award was established to for technical contributions to the computing community. It is widely considered to be the computing world's highest honour, equivalent to a Nobel Prize in computing. It took until 2009 for the British establishment to made an official public apology, which was made by Prime Minister Gordon Brown on behalf of the British government for the way in which Turing was treated after the war.

The similarity between the two men lies in the way the war conduct of both of them remained shrouded in secrecy until long after their deaths. Sempill was never exposed as the traitor he was, and it seems that somebody intervened to ensure that many presumably incriminating files from the 1930s and 1940s "disappeared", never to reach the public domain at all. Meanwhile, all the hugely important work undertaken at Bletchley Park remained secret until the 1970s, meaning that Turing's outstanding contribution to the war effort was not recognised until long after his death.


In the UK, living in a castle like this seems to
provide immunity from prosecution for treason.
Had the public been allowed to know about the codebreaking work at Bletchley Park, Winston Churcill's famous speech about the valiant fighter pilots during the Battle of Britain could easily have been made about the codebreakers too; "Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few".

What is remarkable about the contrasting fates of these two men is the way that members of the British establishment (including the Prime Minister and the Attorney General) repeatedly intervened to protect one of their own, despite his fascist tendencies and decades of treasonous behavior, whilst the establishment people Turing had known and associated with during his time at Cambridge University and at Bletchley Park refused to intervene to help him when criminal charges were brought against him for the trivial offence of engaging in homosexual acts, despite his outstanding contribution to the war effort.

It seems amazing that British nobility, including the Prime Minister, would repeatedly intervene to ensure that another member of their privileged class avoided prosecution for the incredibly serious crime of passing official secrets to foreign powers at a time of war, yet wouldn't do anything to lean on prosecutors to drop the charges against a war hero and genius who happened to have been born into the "lower social orders".

The British nobility turned a blind eye the most heinous of crimes (espionage, treason, fraternising with the enemy, Anti-Semitism)  because it was one of their own class doing it, yet they refused to intervene to prevent a true war hero from suffering homosexual prosecution and chemical castration, simply because he was not one of the upper classes.


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