Wednesday 26 February 2014

Reasons Scotland should vote yes: Uncertainty

Introduction to the series

Before I start out on this series, let me first declare my interests. I am a Yorkshireman, so I suppose that technically makes me English. I wish my beautiful region had more autonomy from Westminster, because perhaps if we had, our local representatives would have fought to protect our vital industries (steel, coal, fishing, transport), rather than letting Westminster deliberately ruin them as part of their insane ideological experiment in turning the UK economy into a supposed "post-industrial society" built around the city of London financial sector (and we all know how that turned out).

I know there is no chance of Yorkshire achieving regional autonomy from London in my lifetime, but that doesn't mean I begrudge the people of Scotland their opportunity to end London rule, in fact I'm delighted for them. The only concern I have is the possibility that the people of Scotland will decline this magnificent chance to assert their autonomy. Come September the 18th, I hope we'll be celebrating the rebirth of the Scottish nation.

I hope I'll be drinking a toast to "Scotland the brave", not mournfully lamenting for "Scotland the servile".


One of the most crucial arguments I can think of in relation to Scottish independence is the uncertainty issue.

The naysayers have repeatedly tried to frame the independence debate around uncertainty. They like to fearmonger that Scotland faces an uncertain future should the Scottish people choose to go it alone. In my view this argument is absolutely ludicrous because Scotland would face an equally uncertain future should they vote to remain part of the United Kingdom.

If Scotland votes to end London rule, then there will be an element of uncertainty over Scotland's membership of the European Union. However if Scotland votes to remain part of the United Kingdom, these uncertainty issues will not be resolved, in fact, they may be made a whole lot worse.

Several high profile EU technocrats have tried to intimidate Scotland out of voting for independence. It is absolutely clear why they are opposed, they are under enormous pressure from countries like Spain, Belgium, France, Finland and Italy, who are all desperately trying to prevent their own regions from achieving greater autonomy/independence.

As well as numerous EU technocrats making this point, the odious William Hague chipped in with his opinion that:
"if Scotland left the United Kingdom, it would also be leaving ... the European Union."

The idea that these threats are anything more than hot air is ludicrous. The EU would be much poorer without Scottish oil and Scottish renewables, so to drive Scotland out would be an act of grotesque economic illiteracy. Even if these ludicrous threats to lock Scotland out of the EU are followed through, who would want to be part of a political union that is intent on driving their own country out of it anyway?

Let's say that Scotland votes no because of this uncertainty over Europe. What then? Well, given that the Tories and UKIP are promising an EU referendum in the next parliament, it seems inevitable that one will take place. The problem for the Scottish people being that their votes will be massively outnumbered by English votes in an EU referendum. This means that if the English do as the corporate press has been conditioning them to, and vote to leave the EU, Scotland will be dragged out with them, no matter how the people of Scotland vote.

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This article was reproduced (with my permission) on the Wings Over Scotland website. You can see that version (and the huge comments thread) here.

What is... Neoliberalism?
The "UKIP are an Alternative" delusion
Margaret Thatcher is dead
The "New Labour are Left Wing" fallacy

Who is to blame for the economic crisis?
George Osborne's economic extremism
The "unpatriotic left" fallacy
The Tory ideological mission
The Great Neoliberal Lie

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