One of the most perplexing things about Brexit is the absolute dearth of serious Brexit supporters, by which I mean people who want Brexit to happen, have articulate reasons for wanting Brexit to happen, and have an actually coherent strategy for achieving a lasting departure from the EU.
Anyone capable of the slightest nuance is capable of understanding that the EU is neither perfectly good, nor evil, but a bit of both.
For every good thing the EU has delivered like the working time directive, consumer protections, frictionless trade and travel, clean rivers and beaches, and equal rights legislation, there's something bad to counterbalance it, like the unaccountable European Central Bank, the imposition of ruinous austerity in Greece, attacks on Internet freedoms, and endless examples of absurd legislation aimed at stuff like outlawing the term "veggie burger".
Militants on either side will focus exclusively on the good or bad, while most sensible people will acknowledge both sides and try to weigh things up for themselves.
Once you have some understanding of the inner workings of the EU, you can't really blame anyone for adopting a Eurosceptic position. In fact I'd go further than that. Anyone who isn't sceptical about at least some of the EU's activities and institutions is basically an unthinking political cultist who would unquestioningly support the EU even if it resorted to truly evil policies like genocide, or ethnic cleansing.
However there is a huge chasm between being a Eurosceptic, and being a Brexiteer who supports Boris Johnson and the Tories' hard-right bodge job of a Brexit proposal.
Just look at the state of him.
When confronted with the fact that his renegotiated Brexit deal creates a border down the Irish sea to separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, Johnson just lies that it won't.Even if you are a Eurosceptic who thinks leaving the EU is best for Britain, how on earth could you end up trusting such an evasive liar to deliver it in such a rushed and shambolic way?
When asked to explain why Scotland needs to be dragged all the way out of the EU against their will, while Northern Ireland get to keep frictionless trade with the continent, he hasn't got an answer.
When Johnson and the Tories are confronted about people's legitimate fears that a hard-right Brexit would lead to the break-up and mass privatisation of the NHS, they simply lie that they're not planning to privatise the NHS, even though that's exactly what they're doing right now, with more NHS services than ever being outsourced to private profiteers.
When Johnson is asked to explain why the protection of workers' rights were stripped out of his Withdrawal proposal, he just refuses to answer.
When asked to explain why the UK government is pursuing a version of Brexit that will trigger a recession, and annihilate our agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing industries, Johnson and his pals just witter platitudes like "will of the people".
If you genuinely want Brexit to succeed, what's the logic in leaving the process in the hands of a dishonest charlatan who outright refuses to explain or acknowledge the obvious implications of his own hastily cobbled together plan?
If you want Britain to quit the EU, why would you want to do it in such an obviously chaotic, divisive and economically damaging manner that it seems doomed to fail from the outset, meaning it'll just end up getting eventually reversed?
And if Boris Johnson's hasty bodge-job does end up collapsing and getting reversed, surely we can see that Brexit would go down as one of the worst mistakes this country has ever made, meaning not a snowball's chance in hell of Brexit ever being resuscitated and done properly.
It's fully understandable that hard core Remainers and assorted other Brexit-sceptic people hate Boris Johnson's Brexit bodge, because it's an absolute mess of a proposal that would devastate the country if it's ever implemented.
But serious Brexit supporters should clearly be hating it even more, because Johnson's hasty bodge job Brexit is going to end up making Brexit look utterly stupid if it's ever implemented, make Brexiters look utterly stupid for endorsing it, and most likely end up being reversed and consigning the concept of a credible, sensibly-planned Brexit to the dustbin of history forever.
The fact that Johnson's ludicrous shambles of a Brexit proposal isn't attracting derision from concerned Brexiters suggests there's really not a very significant number of them who have actually thought through even the most obvious implications of what's happening.
Maybe 'sensible Brexiteers' are such a vanishingly small minority that they simply don't even register in the divisive, dishonest, and downright delusional screeching match our political discourse has descended into over the last few years?
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De Pfeffel's new deal is designed to engineer a very hard brexit in GB while leaving NI with a relatively soft one in perpetuity. He's not only abandoned the EU Single market, he's also ended the UK wide Single Market with a customs border down the Irish sea.
ReplyDeleteBut the most problematic part of the WAB as it is currently constituted is that it renders parliament neutered in so far as it is not then able to ask for any extension to the transition period beyond its deadline in 2020 (clause 30 of the WAB). Anyone stupid enough to believe that a significant trade deal between the UK and the EU can be complete by this deadline needs there head examining, but I guess this part of the WAB is designed to create a new cliff edge which, if the WAB passes, parliament would be unable to pull back from. So we'd have that no deal Brexit the head bangers in the ERG have always really wanted.
"When confronted with the fact that his renegotiated Brexit deal creates a border down the Irish sea to separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, Johnson just lies that it won't."
ReplyDeleteTrue. But you CANNOT have Brexit without either a border in Ireland or down the Irish sea.
"When asked to explain why Scotland needs to be dragged all the way out of the EU against their will, while Northern Ireland get to keep frictionless trade with the continent, he hasn't got an answer."
Because Scotland remaining in the Customs Union/Single Market will create a hard border between it and England. While Northern Ireland remaining in the Customs Union and part of the Single Market prevents one.
"When Johnson and the Tories are confronted about people's legitimate fears that a hard-right Brexit would lead to the break-up and mass privatisation of the NHS, they simply lie that they're not planning to privatise the NHS, even though that's exactly what they're doing right now, with more NHS services than ever being outsourced to private profiteers."
The Tories would never come close to winning an election again if they mass-privatised the NHS in one big swoop.
'When asked to explain why the UK government is pursuing a version of Brexit that will trigger a recession, and annihilate our agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing industries, Johnson and his pals just witter platitudes like "will of the people".'
Recessions are a natural part of capitalism. There's going to be another global recession soon, regardless of Brexit, that will make the last one look like a church picnic! Whether or not there is a Brexit recession depends on if Boris and the Tories are sincere in wanting a free trade deal with the EU.
It shouldn't be difficult to negotiate & implement a free trade deal with the EU - seeing as how the UK already has free access to the Single Market. To be honest, I wasn't aware there was a deadline on the transitional period when I wrote the above comment. So you're right, it is extremely likely that the UK will trade with the EU on WTO terms (if the deal gets through parliament) because it takes politicians a million years to negotiate anything.
ReplyDeleteI hear a lot that it would be easier to get a trade deal with the EU because the UK is currently in full regulatory alignment with them already, but this trade deal would be unlike any other in history, a country actually trying to diverge from existing regulatory alignment. All other trade deals are about finding ways to harmonize, we'd actively be trying to move away from the umbrella of EU regulations etc. To say this would be easy does not take the uniqueness of this situation into account. Simply put, it has no precedent and no ones really knows.
ReplyDeletePoliticians don't negotiate trade deals and treaty's, they ratify them (or don't in the case may be). In the EU it's people like Barnier who do the actual negotiating, because they're rather good at it. If the UK ever get's a WA through parliament and moves on to trying to get a trade deal with the EU it will probably be Sabine Weyand who would lead negotiations.
The whole pretext to your article is part of the problem.
ReplyDeleteYour question-headline is immediately condescending, and then you print a block of text packed full of extreme, unqualified, and emotive ridicule (i.e.: "fully understandable", "bodge", "absolute mess", "devastate"). In the midst of it, you deploy the "every schoolboy knows" logical fallacy, and then indulge in more frothy-mouthed ranting (i.e.: "utterly stupid", "utterly stupid", and "forever").
Why on earth do you expect any sensible Brexiteer to engage with you? Where are they? Well probably steering well clear of you.
Granted, the first block of text in your piece, you are a bit calmer and come across a bit more reasonable about this, espousing the wisdom of euroscepticism, but then you undermine it all with a list of silly ranty bullet points that are neither qualified by evidence or reason (and no, "the guardian" doesn't count as either), nor serve any purpose in your case for seeking to engage with "sensible Brexiteers", because as you plainly infer, to be Eurosceptic is in your eyes "OK", but to be a Brexiteer, is presented as a blasphemy. The inference is that being inside the EU and moaning about it is the acceptable face of "Leave" as far as Remainers are concerned.
Your article is finally revealed as not a call for sensible Brexiteers, but a personal tirade against Boris Johnson.
The reason why Brexiteers are able to support Johnson, is simply because we understand that Remainers are not playing sincere politics, they are liars and indulgers in gamesmanship, trying every trick in the book to cheat the electorate out of their decision to leave the EU. For that reason, the only response is to fight fire with fire, and Boris is a sufficiently equipped performer to ignore every nonsequitur and attempt to manipulate, by the Remainiacs, and to focus on the singular mission, which is to free the UK from the failing EU, and EU that is now collapsing into recession, and we do not want to be bankrupted bailing them out.
The truth about Boris, is that he is the progeny of Blair. The moment the Labour Party was hijacked by the slithering masses of New Labour, they changed the country for the worse. They created the conditions for the Brexit crisis, by unprecedented mass immigration, failure to regulate the banks, enacting thousands of needless laws that pushed the country towards becoming an emergent police state with diversity daleks on every corner, and they polluted politics and turned it into a pantomime game where serious politicians struggle to survive, everyone in the house, the speaker included has lost the confidence of the public, nobody really believes anything they say or any motive they claim, and this coming election is a chance to drain that swamp, and slash away the tentacles of the EU and reopen trade with the growing parts of the world.
@ Anonymous 30 October 05.33
ReplyDeleteI agree with much of your rebuttal. Thomas wrote 5 paragraphs indicating thoughtfulness and balance ... and then flips out thereafter! That standard stance of the smug liberal elite (i.e. The "Brexiteers are stupid/thick/racist" meme) comes surging to the fore.
Thomas's "default" is that being in the EU is the only way a country can grow and prosper. He doesn't understand that there over 165 countries in the world that are not in the EU. He doesn't understand that people might want a democracy where they vote for their own politicians to make laws that affect the country - and to be able to vote them out if they disapprove (socialists really struggle with the whole "democracy" thing).
I was going to go through his ridiculous rant line by line, but I can't be arsed.
I note that Thomas has not yet written a piece on how and why "destroying capitalism" will be good for the UK economy and be be good for the good citizens of the UK (as per Corbyn and McDonnell's stated aims) and how the implementation of a socialist regime makes the population healthier and wealthier (using all successful examples from around the world throughout history).
In a General Election Thomas, people who vote, have to vote for someone. Their cross is put next to the name of the candidate for a party which, overall, reflects their political wishes. People who may vote Tory at the GE may vote for them because they were one of the 52% of the population whose vote has been ignored and thwarted by Labour and the Lib Dems. Or, they may not agree that socialism is a viable political system (because every scrap of evidence says it isn't) and therefore not vote Labour.
This doesn't mean that they "love" Boris Johnson. It doesn't mean that they are rich. It doesn't mean they don't care about public services or want to privatise the NHS. It doesn't mean they are tax avoiders or racists or anti-immigration. It doesn't mean they are not good people.
It means that those people that vote Tory, I assume, believe that, on balance, they are the most likely to do the best job for the UK and that will include their stance on leaving the EU.
The official opposition have leaders that want to "destroy capitalism" and seek to overturn the result of the EU referendum. Just those two items may also be reasons why people might vote Tory (i.e. nothing whatsoever to do with Boris Johnson (other than Johnson isn't Corbyn)).
Gulliver Foyle @ 27th October 21.06
ReplyDeleteAs usual, for reasons I cannot understand, your mental faculties start to fail you as soon as you start writing about Brexit and Trade Deals. Here's the news Mr Foyle! Deals get done when two willing parties want to do a deal. Each party has their own reasons and those reasons are many fold.
In the case of a trade deal between the EU and the UK, a deal will be done, and done quickly, simply because both parties want and need it to be done quickly! This isn't about politics, or left and right politics - its cold, hard economics.
The value of the UK's imports from the EU is about 10 times that of Canada's. I believe I am right in saying that about 3% of all the EU's combined GDP is from exports to the UK. The EU cannot afford for that to be impacted, anymore than the UK can afford its exports to the EU to be affected.
There is no need for there to be a problem because a deal can be done - which is why a deal will be done.
Look back over the last 3 years or so, on here, at your pronouncements on want the EU wont do. Go back and look at the interchanges about "no cherry picking" and "slices of cake" and all the things you and your type said wasn't possible and then look at what has happened. Your political ideology interfered with common sense then - and will again.
A trade deal is not going to happen now, the E.U have stated they no longer wish to negotiate on Johnson's deal (scuppering Labours plans to get a new deal if they get in power in the next G.E).
ReplyDeleteFrom 2016 a free trade deal was completely possible. Donald Tusk actually offered one a week prior to the March Brexit date being postponed. Parliament is 73% remainers, the individual MP's are clearly tied into the E.U ideologically or financially and have been seeking to scupper a decent deal because they simply don't want Brexit. Unless AAV has decided that suddenly the majority of Parliament is suddenly very honourable and not self serving if the vote wants to be honoured, which it should: A no deal is the only current option and given the E.U's tyrannical history of dissenting nations: Greece, Italy and Portugal, not to mention their insane economic resume: No deal would clearly be best for the UK financially.
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